Thursday, September 25, 2008

Go Read: Annual Carbon Budget Numbers Commentary

Most striking is that, despite years of effort, carbon dioxide emissions are increasing at an alarming rate of 3.5% a year– faster than the 2.7% predicted by the IPCC in their worst case scenario, and miles ahead of the 0.9% annual rise in the 1990s. Worst still, current measures have been based on a middle-ground IPCC scenario. Pep Candell from the Global Carbon Budget told me that this was “astonishing”.

For the first time, we have hit 10 billion tonnes of carbon emitted annually.

The other thing to note is that China and India are galumphing their way up the table of biggest carbon dioxide emitters. Ten years ago the top four were: USA, China, Russia, Japan. Today that list reads: China, USA, Russia, India – and I am assured by Candell that next year India will have jumped into third place.

This is a worry – when the Kyoto Protocol was first talked about, the countries of the developing world were overwhelmingly the highest emitters of CO2. But in the meantime, whilst decisions were made, details argued out and paperwork signed, the developing world has taken pole position.

China has, since 2002, jumped from being responsible for 14% of the global carbon dioxide emissions, to 21%. At the same time the US has been hovering at around 20%.


Oh, yes, global warming is inevitable.

Looking forward to Wilmington, North Carolina's climate, Carlos? I've heard a few people here joking they're all in favor of getting San Diego's here. (oy)

Actually, neither statement is correct: I'm being flippant. There's a lot more going on (less snow, more rain, a lot more catastrophic rain, etc) than merely the climate zones marching north some 300 odd miles. It's much more of a fundamental climate change than a climate latitudinal shift.

No, it won't be a repeat of a past climate despite my flip comments (also) to the effect that we're headed to a Neo-Eocene. It's going to be something completely new. And exciting. And without the extinction of humanity. Sheesh.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

It extends miniskirt season. Also, I live on top of one of Brooklyn's local maxima. (Lightning has killed more than one cable connection.) So I'm not going to be drowning in the Gowanus.

Frankly, I'm more worried about the hurricane track. It's easy enough to put up dikes. This area used to be Dutch, after all.

Carlos

Will Baird said...

It extends miniskirt season.

If you want that, move to Las Cruces, NM. Miniskirt season up through Nov most years. Summer, while hot, makes for outstanding feminine clothes.

Frankly, I'm more worried about the hurricane track.

This ought to frighten more than just you. It could be a serious problem many places, not just the east coast.

So long as we get the northern current, we're ok...dry, but ok. We think.